Had the Republican Party continued to move in a more liberal direction, it might have been more likely that 2024 would see more of a political realignment among these voters.
Are LGBTQ voters about to abandon Biden?
History suggests LGBTQ voters and Biden are headed for a breakup. But there’s much more at play here.
In 2010, when Congress passed legislation repealing the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy banning LGBTQ servicemembers from serving openly in the military, eight Senate Republicans and 15 House Republicans joined Democrats in supporting repeal. In 2022, 11 Senate Republicans and 47 House Republicans voted to codify protections for same-sex marriages.
But in recent years, Republicans have embraced an anti-transgender panic. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has led this charge, but he’s backed by other prominent officials and media figures, and GOP-led state legislatures in many states have passed anti-trans legislation.
This shift has likely made LGBTQ identity more salient to members of the community, driving them away from a hostile GOP.
This also shows up in polling: Though there’s broad dissatisfaction with Biden and his presidency and a desire for the Democratic Party to do more to protect the rights of queer and trans Americans, views of the Republican Party and Trump are significantly more negative. And baked into some of the concerns about the economy and inflation is a desire by LGBTQ voters for the Republican Party to care more about kitchen-table issues than about social or culture war fascinations, like banning medical care for trans youth.
“Regardless of your positions on other issues, to the extent that being queer is important to you, you're seeing big, big differences between the two parties on this very, very important issue. And so that's going to keep a lot of LGBTQ voters voting for Democrats who otherwise would find the Republican Party more favorable,” Egan said.
Still, every expert I spoke with reached a similar conclusion — that none of this should lull Democrats into complacency, and that it’s not a given that LGBTQ voters will forever stay loyal Democrats.
“Generational turnover happens. Replacement happens. And you might get a more progressive LGBTQ voting bloc in the short term, but in the long, long run, the notion that you might have LGBTQ people who will vote Republican or who will not have to think about their LGBTQ identity as a factor of their vote is sort of a measure of success for the movement,” Flores said. “Greater political heterogeneity might be a signal that these identities are no longer being politicized or marginalized. But it’s hard to look out at contemporary politics and say that that’s going to happen right now.”