Progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman just lost his primary to George Latimer. Here’s what that means.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a progressive Democratic lawmaker who’s been vocal in his calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, lost his New York primary on Tuesday, following intense scrutiny of his position on Israel. Bowman’s defeat marks the first successful challenge of a progressive incumbent this year, and comes after pro-Israel advocacy groups spent heavily to boost his competitor, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who framed himself as a moderate alternative. Collectively, outside pro-Israel organizations spent more than $18 million on the race, making it the most expensive House primary ever. Bowman’s loss suggests that sharp critiques of Israel can be a vulnerability for Democrats in certain districts, and that the party’s once ascendant left flank may be facing some pushback. It also spotlights the influence of big money in politics and how its presence can help shape outcomes. It’s important to note that Bowman’s race is one of dozens of primaries, and is just a single data point indicating where his party stands on Israel and other issues. Progressives in prior contests, like Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA), have been similarly critical of the country’s offensive in Gaza, but have been able to decisively win their primaries. And as a candidate, there were other reasons Bowman was more vulnerable besides the foreign policy positions he chose to take. Bowman came into the race fielding critiques for his decisions to pull a fire alarm in Congress and to promote conspiracy theories about September 11 in a past blog, something he’s said he regrets. All that means that while some political observers will undoubtedly take away lessons on Israel from Bowman’s race, it remains difficult to make any sweeping statement about how the war in Gaza will impact this year’s races. Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s primary, briefly explained Bowman – a former middle school principal and the first Black representative from New York’s 16th district – was first elected in 2020, after mounting a successful progressive primary challenge to then-incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel. Spanning parts of the Bronx, Yonkers and suburbs of Westchester County, the district has a majority Black and Latino voter base as well as a sizable contingent of Jewish voters. Once in Congress, Bowman became a member of the Squad, a group of progressive lawmakers that includes Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN). The group has urged Democrats to pursue more ambitious social policies and has grown in size since 2018. In 2022, Bowman won his House primary by double digits. This year’s tightly-fought race attracted a lot of outside attention, largely because of how central Israel policy became. AIPAC, and its affiliates, which have reportedly vowed to spend $100 million throughout the 2024 election cycle to unseat candidates they view as not supportive enough of the country, spent upwards of $14 million to back Latimer. “This race against AIPAC is a really good litmus test as it relates to that, because [they’re] a big-money lobby [that’s] spending more money in this race than has ever been spent in primary history,” Bowman previously told Rolling Stone. “They’re doing that because they do not want a progressive agenda to move forward.” Bowman’s positions on Israel have grown more progressive over time: In early 2021, he supported military aid and funding for the Iron Dome, a defense system that the country relies on. Following a trip to the West Bank later that year, however, Bowman told Politico his perspective shifted due to the inequality he witnessed. Latimer, who has previously served as a state representative and state senator – in addition to stressing his ideological contrast with Bowman – touted local tax cuts and infrastructure investments that he’s overseen in his current role as examples of how he’s delivered for the region. He called Bowman out of step with the district, while Bowman said his backers were a diverse group of voters representative of the region. Latimer’s campaign was plagued by accusations of racism by Bowman, and others, for comments he made. Among them, Latimer said that Bowman had an “ethnic benefit,” and that his constituency was “Dearborn, Michigan,” which has a higher Arab American population than many US cities. Bowman said that Latimer has leveraged the “angry Black man” trope in his campaign attacks, and diminished those supporting him. The Westchester official was criticized, too, for implementing desegregation policies too slowly in the region. Latimer denied accusations of racism. Democrats are divided on Israel The Bowman and Latimer primary highlighted an enduring Democratic divide as Israel’s offensive in Gaza – and the humanitarian crisis it’s caused – deepens. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 37,000 people have been killed in the region, while over 85,000 have been injured. Palestinians in Gaza are also facing the risks of famine and disease as food, water, and medical supplies all run devastatingly low. And tens of thousands of Gazans have been displaced due to the Israeli military’s airstrikes and lack of safe zones. President Joe Biden has long taken a much more supportive position in favor of military aid to Israel, prompting outcry from progressives – and a growing number of Democratic lawmakers – who’ve called for more restrictions or accountability regarding how these funds are dispersed. Bowman’s race, which took place in a solidly blue district, underscored these differences and indicated where some loyal Democratic voters stand on this issue. Additionally, it was a reminder that progressive members who’ve entered Congress by unseating longstanding incumbents, are not invulnerable to challengers themselves. Progressives, including members of the Squad, have been far more aggressive about both pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and curbing US aid to Israel than most of their colleagues. There are some indications that the Democratic base is in alignment with these progressives: For instance, 83 percent of Democrats in an April 2024 Data for Progress poll said they were supportive of a ceasefire, and a Gallup poll also found that most Americans disapprove of Israel’s actions. When asked specifically about the conflict, more Americans support Israel over the militant group, however. The outcome of the Bowman-Latimer face-off provided one signal regarding where Democrats landed on this issue. And it could also be a harbinger for races to come, though it’s an imperfect analogy. Other progressives are poised to soon see similar challenges, including Rep. Cori Bush, who has seen AIPAC pour money into her race as well, and Rep. Ilhan Omar, who also faces off against a more centrist challenger later this year. Update, June 25, 10:30pm ET: This story was originally published on June 25 and has been updated with the outcome of the primary.